DOLGOSROChNY`J PROGNOZ ChISLENNOSTI NARODONASELENIYa I PERSPEKTIVY` CIVILIZACIONNOGO VZAIMODEJSTVIYa
Table of contents
Share
Metrics
DOLGOSROChNY`J PROGNOZ ChISLENNOSTI NARODONASELENIYa I PERSPEKTIVY` CIVILIZACIONNOGO VZAIMODEJSTVIYa
Annotation
PII
S086919080000617-5-1
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Edition
Pages
95-110
Abstract
The long-term forecasting of the population number is gradually becoming the practice of social science. The UN demographic department regularly publishes such forecasts on countries, the main regions and the world on the whole. The check of the forecasts, made by the United Nations experts earlier, shows that the degree of their reliability is high enough. The results of demographic forecasts are used for analyzing the prospect of development in very different spheres since the population is both the main producer of goods and services and the main consumer of natural resources. The establishing of "weak points" in the future economy gives for forecasting in the political field and the social sphere. At the same time an essential limitation is the fact that the methods usually used for demographic forecasting are complicated enough and make it difficult to carry out studies in other disciplines (economy, sociology, etc), to make similar estimates. The article contains the results of the estimates on the basis of the methods worked out by the author and tested by time. Shown are the possibilities of the long-term forecasting of the processes connected with the growth of the population. On this ground the tasks are formulated which arise in adjacent branches of social science when long-term forecasting is done.
Date of publication
01.07.2009
Number of purchasers
0
Views
233
Readers community rating
0.0 (0 votes)
Cite Download pdf 100 RUB / 1.0 SU

To download PDF you should sign in

Full text is available to subscribers only
Subscribe right now
Only article and additional services
Whole issue and additional services
All issues and additional services for 2009
1

References



Additional sources and materials

1. Zhukov S.V. i Ehl'yanov A.Ya. Razvivayuschiesya strany: asimmetriya globalizatsii // Vostok (Oriens). 2006. № 6. 
2. Kapitsa S.P. Skol'ko lyudej zhilo, zhivet i budet zhit' na Zemle. Ocherk teorii rosta chelovechestva. M., 1999.
3. Mel'yantsev V.A. Aziatskij ehkonomicheskij ryvok: masshtaby, ehffektivnost', posledstviya // Gleriyu Shirokovu: ya khotel by s toboj pogovorit'. M., 2006.
4. Xantington S. Stolknovenie tsivilizatsij. M.: AST, 2003.
5. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007. <http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview>Iran Achieves Replacement-Level Fertility // Population Today, May/June 2002.
6. Landes D.S. The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. N.Y.: W.W. Norton & Company Inc., 1999
7. World Population in 2300. Proceedings of the UN Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300. UN, N.Y., 2004.
8. ESA/P/WP, 187/Rev. 1, 24 March 2004.

Comments

No posts found

Write a review
Translate