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SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND FORECAST OF STRUCTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC RISKS OF EASTERN AFRICA (KENYA, TANZANIA, UGANDA)
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND FORECAST OF STRUCTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC RISKS OF EASTERN AFRICA (KENYA, TANZANIA, UGANDA)
Annotation
PII
S086919080000616-4-1
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Julia Zinkina 
ORCID: 0000-0003-0524-2140
Andrey V. Korotayev
ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037
Edition
Issue 1
Pages
105-118
Abstract
The paper concerns the risks of sociopolitical instability emergence for three East African countries (Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda) which are currently trying to escape from the Malthusian trap. We offer a cognitive model of the emergence of such risks that pays particular attention to demographic indicators and urbanization processes, especially to the "youth bulge" and rapid growth of urban population forecasted by the UN. There are various development scenarios for these countries for the coming decades. Serious political agency seems required to avoid or at least mitigate the risks of sociopolitical destabilization.
Keywords
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, East Africa, socio-political instability, risk forecasting
Date of publication
01.01.2013
Number of purchasers
1
Views
927
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