SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY UP TO 2050
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SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY UP TO 2050
Annotation
PII
S086919080000616-4-1
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Edition
Pages
147-153
Abstract
The article presents a set of forecast scenarios of the world economy. This forecasting technique has shown its effectiveness in a long term forecasting. The set includes forecasts of population growth, agricultural production, and fuel and power balance (first level scenarios). On the basis of these forecasts integrated forecasts are worked out. Some first level scenarios coincide with integrated scenarios but some others do not. Two level set of scenarios demonstrates that in perspective up to 2050 an important world trend is the direction of globalization change. New industrialization in the West, new technological development, population ageing and natural decline, growing inter- cultural conflicts under multicultural policy in Europe and North America may push the West to isolationism.
Keywords
scenario forecasts, two-tier forecasting system, demographic development, food situation, energy
Date of publication
01.07.2015
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0
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312
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Additional sources and materials

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  5. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. National Intelligence Council, USA. December 2012.

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